Challenging Luck

“As established, luck is a vague term used to describe the ultimate incapability of human beings to spend unneeded amounts of time calculating the events of fortune vs misfortune that might occur throughout a given period of time longer than about 3 seconds. Many people have tried to associate values to certain factors, coming up with factors and variables and constants and all kinds of useless mathematics that ultimately do little to predict the overarching question of someone’s instantaneous fortune. So, we call it luck. But perhaps there is a way to calculate a value for someone’s luck based on information on not only themselves, but the world around them. Yet how do we even begin to accomplish this?

“To start, we can look back at a fictional concept known as “psychohistory”, first found in the writings of Isaac Asimov in his Foundation series. The plot revolves around a mathematician named Hari Seldon who attempts to save a dysfunctional and desensitized society dying galactic empire from itself by predicting the future, allowing civilization to rebuild and reshape itself, taking the necessary steps towards ultimate utopia, Seldon’s plan engrained into the very essence of their culture. While this is only a fictional representation, there are many sciences that actually exist that seek similar if not the same goal, including one that, while sharing the name “psychohistory”, inspects very different aspects of sociology and psychology throughout time. However, these fields all assert that human nature, while seemingly random is, in theory, predictable. From this, we can assume then, that our overall fortune is ultimately predictable. Can we then assume we can establish a function for the good fortune we may experience over time, and from there, our instantaneous fortune, also known as luck?

“The first and most obvious step would be to start assigning values to different variables. Lets say x is equivalent to lifespan in years, and y is equivalent to relative fortune on a scale of -100 to 100, with 0 being a complete balance between good and bad events, -100 being death and 100 being the ultimate potential fulfillment that one might reach at any given point in their lifespan. But where do we go from here? What other variables do we have to include when determining a line? Well, assuming we are using the function F(x) = mx + b, we need to calculate a value of b before we can proceed. The value of ultimately decides the potential fortune that one will have at birth, and is based on a number of factors. A good place to start would be the HDI of the country in which the subject was born. Further factors would be the sustainability of this HDI based on historical implications of that society’s geography, dependability, internal politics, chance of society-modifying illness, culture and its implications on future health, impact of other nations, etc.” – Some pompous jerk with a stereotypical English accent

This makes absolutely no sense. Going against the whole point of luck, its own very random definition? Give me a break. The bias is killing me. This paper is overly-analytical of an abstract concept. Unoriginal and boring. You’re better than this, so I want a completely redone paper on my desk by tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, enjoy the music.

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1 Comment

  1. Or…the world is run by mice?
    Either way, there is too much evidence in defense of luck, but not enough evidence to use effectively. That’s because luck is not predictable. How else to explain Skill or luck?
    As for Charlie Bucket…that was the “hero’s journey” with honesty being tested.
    RUBRIC: some new information on the topic; informational post: attempts to synthesize information and form new meaning;
    written in a somewhat interesting style and voice (a little confusing…but that was the point, right?); words chosen mostly reflect author’s personality and brings content to life for the most part; sentence fluency is mostly achieved
    few spelling errors; few grammar errors; some formatting to help make the post easier to read; multimedia adds new information or perspective to post; some categorized or tagged


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